

Prices for raw goods that help drive companies' input costs have also declined from mid-2022 highs: Lumber and wood prices have been tumbling since February 2022 metal prices have been on a downward march since May 2022 and gas prices have cooled from their peak in summer last year.ĭespite things getting back to normal, inflation remains high. And the excuse of shortages is a thing of the past: Retailers have been reporting an inventory glut for months as products pile up in their back rooms. Chris Williamson, the chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, found that the number of supply-chain delays fell yet again this January, reaching their lowest level since January 2020. In March, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's global supply-chain-pressure index fell to its lowest level since 2008, and has been tumbling since December 2021. Freight-trucking prices peaked in spring 2022 and have tumbled close to pre-pandemic levels over the past year. The index rose just 1.2% from December 2022 to March 2023, barely above pre-pandemic levels and well below the pandemic peak from late 2021.Īnother oft-cited inflation culprit, supply chains, have returned to normal. Wages and salaries in the Employment Cost Index, a broader measure of employee compensation, have been on a downward march for roughly a year. But average hourly earnings grew by just 0.3% in March, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, and currently sit at year-over-year growth of 4.2% - well below the nearly 6% jump from March 2021 to March 2022. Economists and the Federal Reserve suggested workers demanding higher wages was the "key" to inflation. Labor-market disruptions were a prime suspect in soaring inflation last year. But more than three years since the dislocations began, many of the logistical and labor messes have normalized. The sudden economic stop-start of the pandemic caused a dramatic mismatch between supply and demand, fueling a once-in-a-generation inflation flare-up. And given the relative impunity big business enjoys, there may not be much relief for Americans' wallets anytime soon. The data is increasingly pointing to one culprit: corporate profit hoarding. While many of the problems that helped trigger the upward spiral have abated, prices are still high and getting higher.


While Drew told me he's seen prices stabilizing in 2023, there's one thing they're definitely not doing: coming down.Īnyone who has reached for a carton of eggs, filled up their tank with gas, or tried to buy pretty much anything has felt the sting of that inflation over the past few years. "They can sell half of what they need to sell, but they're hitting those profit numbers already," he said. But instead of trying to sell a higher volume at a lower price point, it seemed as if companies realized they could raise prices and still bring in the same amount of money. If they weren't selling enough, they'd offer deals to entice consumers. In the past, Drew said, food manufacturers' business success was gauged by how many products they sold. There was inventory on the shelves and shoppers were doing less compulsive buying. From what he could tell, cost pressures from the war in Ukraine and the supply-chain crisis were easing.
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But around October, Drew - whose last name is known to Insider but withheld over concerns about professional repercussions - noticed something odd. But when COVID-19 hit, companies started raising prices every three to four months, which Drew said was "unheard of."įor a while, the price hikes made sense: Supply chains were snarled, manufacturers were paying more for the ingredients needed to make their products, companies were having to offer big wage hikes to lure workers, and consumers were buying everything in sight. "Usually in the industry, a price increase would happen maybe once a year, maybe once every two years," he told me. But nothing in his two decades in the industry prepared him for companies' response to the pandemic. It often indicates a user profile.ĭrew has worked in the wholesale grocery business for over 20 years, making sure food hits the shelves on time and at the best prices. Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders.
